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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #50 of 234

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200JJ Bleday
JJ Bleday · #50
V⁻ -10VORP 31V⁺ 38
JJ Bleday

JJ Bleday

OF·CIN
Compare
Compare
PA
160
H
38
HR
10
AVG
.273
xwOBA
.391
PPG
3.13
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj71309.239.328.452.213.34522.3%11.6%10.7%1421722.42—
202638160.273
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

160 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
91
.391
xBA
78
.279
.365
.568
.295
.391
19.4%
12.5%
6.9%
10
2
119
3.13
—
2025101344.212.294.404.192.28026.5%10.5%16.0%1411661.64—
2024160644.242.323.436.194.32419.4%10.4%9.0%2023322.08—
202381304.195.312.354.159.30023.7%13.8%9.9%1051301.60—
202267239.166.278.307.141.28228.0%12.6%15.4%54671.00—
xSLG
86
.516
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
63
90.3
Median EV
0
—
90th % EV
0
—
Barrel %
75
12.8
Hard-Hit %
82
49.5
Sweet-Spot %
95
45.0
Bat Speed
Avg
68
72.1
Median
0
—
90th %
0
—
Plate Discipline
Chase %
75
25.2
Whiff %
28
25.7
K %
53
19.4
BB %
80
12.5
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
130
≈ 99th pctl
Chase cost
-0.0r
1 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-0.1r
2 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
50.0%
8 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-1.29
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1112111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 8