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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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JJ Bleday

JJ Bleday

OF·CIN
Compare
Compare
PA
304
H
50
HR
10
AVG
.195
xwOBA
.300
PPG
1.60
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202638160.273.365.568.295.39119.4%12.5%6.9%1021193.13—
2025101344.212
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

304 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
7
.300
xBA
0
.198
.294
.404
.192
.280
26.5%
10.5%
16.0%
14
1
166
1.64
—
2024160644.242.323.436.194.32419.4%10.4%9.0%2023322.08—
202381304.195.312.354.159.30023.7%13.8%9.9%1051301.60—
202267239.166.278.307.141.28228.0%12.6%15.4%54671.00—
xSLG
3
.351
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
19
87.8
Median EV
18
90.5
90th % EV
17
103.2
Barrel %
24
6.4
Hard-Hit %
14
35.3
Sweet-Spot %
5
30.5
Bat Speed
Avg
66
71.3
Median
59
72.0
90th %
34
75.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
92
19.8
Whiff %
32
24.7
K %
26
23.7
BB %
91
13.8
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
119
≈ 97th pctl
Chase cost
-14.1r
147 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-8.4r
148 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
43.5%
1,210 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-1.86
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
3+0%6+14%7+0%21+0%7+0%61+14%14+25%32+6%52+3%36+9%43+10%20+0%8+20%15+30%60-17%70-26%84-39%49+14%35+0%13+19%21+3%38-20%50-20%66-22%37+27%155+8%12+15%20+20%15-8%13+47%19+29%72142532CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000