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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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JJ Bleday

JJ Bleday

OF·CIN
Compare
Compare
PA
344
H
65
HR
14
AVG
.212
xwOBA
.280
PPG
1.64
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202638160.273.365.568.295.39119.4%12.5%6.9%1021193.13—
2025101344.212
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

344 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
0
.280
xBA
0
.199
.294
.404
.192
.280
26.5%
10.5%
16.0%
14
1
166
1.64
—
2024160644.242.323.436.194.32419.4%10.4%9.0%2023322.08—
202381304.195.312.354.159.30023.7%13.8%9.9%1051301.60—
202267239.166.278.307.141.28228.0%12.6%15.4%54671.00—
xSLG
4
.348
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
26
88.7
Median EV
28
91.8
90th % EV
28
104.2
Barrel %
31
7.8
Hard-Hit %
23
38.7
Sweet-Spot %
4
31.3
Bat Speed
Avg
40
69.9
Median
38
71.1
90th %
31
75.5
Plate Discipline
Chase %
65
24.9
Whiff %
10
29.1
K %
13
26.5
BB %
72
10.5
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
105
≈ 71th pctl
Chase cost
-20.9r
210 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-10.3r
201 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
44.6%
1,342 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.33
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
15+0%14+12%17+11%9+0%83+8%12+18%33+10%39-7%42+9%32+7%14+0%7+50%24+21%39-33%75-37%78-38%52+42%26+0%8+30%27-10%42-26%62-19%62-16%31+73%15+0%9+33%18+38%26+20%20+44%18+50%16+38%843335+14%71CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000