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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Joc Pederson

Joc Pederson

H·TEX
Compare
Compare
PA
425
H
84
HR
15
AVG
.235
xwOBA
.373
PPG
2.00
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202662197.238.352.439.201.35320.3%13.7%6.6%801111.79—
2025100306.181
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

425 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
85
.373
xBA
51
.257
.286
.328
.147
.317
21.2%
11.1%
10.1%
9
2
132
1.32
—
2024137449.275.395.515.240.38423.4%12.2%11.2%2372882.10—
2023122425.235.351.416.181.37320.9%13.4%7.5%1502442.00—
2022143433.274.357.521.247.37023.1%9.7%13.4%2362872.01—
2021157482.237.312.421.184.33224.3%8.1%16.2%1822731.74—
202062138.190.285.397.207.33624.6%8.0%16.6%711101.77—
2019158515.248.339.537.289.34721.6%9.7%11.9%3613652.31—
2018158444.247.323.520.273.33019.1%9.0%10.1%2512971.88—
2017120323.212.332.407.195.34121.1%12.1%9.0%1142081.73—
xSLG
78
.488
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
85
91.9
Median EV
90
95.3
90th % EV
74
106.8
Barrel %
78
12.1
Hard-Hit %
93
52.2
Sweet-Spot %
47
36.0
Bat Speed
Avg
61
71.0
Median
62
72.3
90th %
65
77.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
45
28.3
Whiff %
45
22.6
K %
49
20.9
BB %
90
13.4
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
89
≈ 14th pctl
Chase cost
-36.8r
326 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-14.2r
224 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
45.0%
1,737 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.93
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
4+0%12+23%13+0%10+0%1454+60%10+38%29+28%47+14%37+29%35+38%13+0%9+53%32+14%50-29%73-28%57-17%41+46%26+18%11+33%24-4%45-30%47-39%49-22%51+23%22+25%8+31%13+30%23-3%30+15%26+35%17+43%7453+0%8322CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000