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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Joc Pederson

Joc Pederson

H·TEX
Compare
Compare
PA
449
H
101
HR
23
AVG
.275
xwOBA
.384
PPG
2.10
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202664207.243.355.445.202.35319.8%13.5%6.3%801151.80—
2025100306.181
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

449 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
91
.384
xBA
69
.261
.286
.328
.147
.317
21.2%
11.1%
10.1%
9
2
132
1.32
—
2024137449.275.395.515.240.38423.4%12.2%11.2%2372882.10—
2023122425.235.351.416.181.37320.9%13.4%7.5%1502442.00—
2022143433.274.357.521.247.37023.1%9.7%13.4%2362872.01—
2021157482.237.312.421.184.33224.3%8.1%16.2%1822731.74—
202062138.190.285.397.207.33624.6%8.0%16.6%711101.77—
2019158515.248.339.537.289.34721.6%9.7%11.9%3613652.31—
2018158444.247.323.520.273.33019.1%9.0%10.1%2512971.88—
2017120323.212.332.407.195.34121.1%12.1%9.0%1142081.73—
xSLG
85
.487
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
81
91.7
Median EV
76
94.0
90th % EV
81
107.6
Barrel %
82
12.8
Hard-Hit %
69
46.2
Sweet-Spot %
43
35.3
Bat Speed
Avg
69
71.6
Median
71
72.9
90th %
79
78.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
37
29.7
Whiff %
47
22.6
K %
37
23.4
BB %
95
12.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
92
≈ 20th pctl
Chase cost
-34.9r
348 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-17.0r
299 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
44.1%
1,859 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.79
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
3+14%7+25%8+21%14+0%17+0%65+19%16+22%32+26%46+21%39+29%34+18%17+21%14+61%33+14%57-35%74-29%49-26%42+21%19+80%10+40%30-9%54-46%52-39%49-45%40+24%17+22%9+25%12+44%18-19%16+0%22+0%155425+0%8+0%753CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000