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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Joc Pederson

Joc Pederson

H·TEX
Compare
Compare
PA
306
H
48
HR
9
AVG
.181
xwOBA
.317
PPG
1.32
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202662197.238.352.439.201.35320.3%13.7%6.6%801111.79—
2025100306.181
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

306 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
26
.317
xBA
4
.223
.286
.328
.147
.317
21.2%
11.1%
10.1%
9
2
132
1.32
—
2024137449.275.395.515.240.38423.4%12.2%11.2%2372882.10—
2023122425.235.351.416.181.37320.9%13.4%7.5%1502442.00—
2022143433.274.357.521.247.37023.1%9.7%13.4%2362872.01—
2021157482.237.312.421.184.33224.3%8.1%16.2%1822731.74—
202062138.190.285.397.207.33624.6%8.0%16.6%711101.77—
2019158515.248.339.537.289.34721.6%9.7%11.9%3613652.31—
2018158444.247.323.520.273.33019.1%9.0%10.1%2512971.88—
2017120323.212.332.407.195.34121.1%12.1%9.0%1142081.73—
xSLG
22
.397
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
66
90.9
Median EV
50
93.2
90th % EV
69
107.0
Barrel %
47
9.5
Hard-Hit %
50
44.8
Sweet-Spot %
4
31.3
Bat Speed
Avg
74
72.0
Median
64
72.9
90th %
65
78.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
52
26.6
Whiff %
47
22.6
K %
46
21.2
BB %
76
11.1
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
98
≈ 42th pctl
Chase cost
-22.1r
215 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-10.7r
187 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
44.1%
1,262 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.60
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
3+0%6+13%8+6%17+17%12+0%73+6%16+33%33+38%32+19%58+36%45+14%37+6%18+27%26+9%43-31%45-26%61-33%54+24%29+30%20+47%30+0%39-41%39-35%71-31%39+36%14+25%8+25%20+24%21-5%20-28%18-7%1543+0%741422CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000