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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Joc Pederson

Joc Pederson

H·TEX
Compare
Compare
PA
197
H
39
HR
8
AVG
.238
xwOBA
.353
PPG
1.79
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj62270.234.335.427.193.34222.3%11.8%10.6%1121432.30—
202662197.238
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

197 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
64
.353
xBA
45
.253
.352
.439
.201
.353
20.3%
13.7%
6.6%
8
0
111
1.79
—
2025100306.181.286.328.147.31721.2%11.1%10.1%921321.32—
2024137449.275.395.515.240.38423.4%12.2%11.2%2372882.10—
2023122425.235.351.416.181.37320.9%13.4%7.5%1502442.00—
2022143433.274.357.521.247.37023.1%9.7%13.4%2362872.01—
2021157482.237.312.421.184.33224.3%8.1%16.2%1822731.74—
202062138.190.285.397.207.33624.6%8.0%16.6%711101.77—
2019158515.248.339.537.289.34721.6%9.7%11.9%3613652.31—
2018158444.247.323.520.273.33019.1%9.0%10.1%2512971.88—
2017120323.212.332.407.195.34121.1%12.1%9.0%1142081.73—
xSLG
49
.416
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
80
91.2
Median EV
78
95.0
90th % EV
15
101.7
Barrel %
55
9.4
Hard-Hit %
78
48.0
Sweet-Spot %
49
36.2
Bat Speed
Avg
41
69.7
Median
51
72.0
90th %
53
76.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
69
26.1
Whiff %
20
27.6
K %
49
20.3
BB %
83
13.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
103
≈ 61th pctl
Chase cost
-4.3r
47 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.3r
49 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
43.6%
273 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.42
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
2+0%62521+25%8+0%18+0%7+50%8+22%94-11%9-27%15-35%23-6%17+50%1053+7%15-30%20-50%12-40%15+50%814+0%74324112CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 273