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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #13 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Joe Ryan
Joe Ryan · #13
V⁻ —VORP 77V⁺ —
Joe Ryan

Joe Ryan

SP·MIN
Compare
Compare
BF
310
K %
27.1%
BB %
5.2%
xwOBA
.279
PTS
190
PPG
13.57
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj1919101.075003.683.4126.6%5.8%20.7%————22912.04
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
41
93.2
FB Spin
46
2258
Extension
2026
14
14
76.3
4
3
0
0
3.07
2.92
27.1%
5.2%
21.9%
.279
.270
70.2%
36.9%
190
13.57
20253331176.71410003.363.6528.0%5.6%22.4%.289.26678.7%36.9%43613.21
20242424140.077003.603.4127.3%4.3%23.0%.269.25870.8%36.4%32413.50
20233232172.01310004.293.9029.3%5.1%24.2%.292.30075.9%33.1%38211.94
20222929152.0138003.433.8925.0%7.8%17.2%.298.25378.4%29.3%35612.28
20215526.721004.053.3630.0%5.0%25.0%.270.19758.4%27.7%7014.00
87
6.84
Results
xwOBA
88
.279
Barrel %
17
10.8
Hard-Hit %
28
42.9
K %
87
27.1
BB %
92
5.2
Chase %
72
32.4
Whiff %
51
22.3
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
111
≈ 86th pctl
Stuff+
100
if they swing
Command+
111
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
101
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
10.1%
51 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.036
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.006 better than avg · 179 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
-0.012
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.041 better than avg · 24 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 506 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
48.3%92.72260+14.4+12.76.9024.8%56.9%30.6%29.0%12.2%0.309
SinkerSI
11.4%92.9

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE25°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSISLFSSTKCCU
Usage48%11%11%10%9%7%3%
MPH92.792.985.987.079.277.978.7
RHP Avg95.094.386.786.783.383.080.2
2158
+9.2
+17.8
6.84
13.6%
47.1%
21.6%
29.6%
22.2%
0.361
SliderSL
10.7%85.92321+4.2-1.26.6419.0%50.0%25.0%20.8%0.0%0.494
Split-FingerFS
9.8%87.02050+2.4+17.66.7730.4%38.6%20.5%29.6%16.7%0.233
SweeperST
9.2%79.22823-0.6-17.16.7323.5%34.1%24.4%33.3%15.4%0.249
Knuckle CurveKC
7.4%77.92795-9.7-16.06.6025.0%33.3%21.2%50.0%25.0%0.068
CurveballCU
3.1%78.72785-10.3-14.86.4166.7%35.7%50.0%44.4%54.5%0.002

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 14″SI · 16″ST · 21″SL · 22″FS · 21″KC · 24″CU · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 28″SI · 31″ST · 62″SL · 48″FS · 45″KC · 66″CU · 66″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (3.94′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSISLFSSTKCCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSISLFSSTKCCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSISLFSSTKCCU

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.