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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #115 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Joey Cantillo
Joey Cantillo · #60
V⁻ —VORP -31V⁺ —
Joey Cantillo

Joey Cantillo

SP / RP·CLE
Compare
Compare
BF
293
K %
21.5%
BB %
12.3%
xwOBA
.331
PTS
100
PPG
7.14
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj231478.044004.074.0023.3%10.5%12.9%————1375.96
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
19
91.5
FB Spin
0
1859
Extension
2026
14
14
67.0
4
3
0
0
4.57
5.01
21.5%
12.3%
9.2%
.331
.300
73.9%
42.4%
100
7.14
20253713100.055113.423.7726.9%10.4%16.5%.301.27876.2%41.4%2165.84
202412841.024004.834.1027.0%9.2%17.8%.304.28768.0%48.1%625.17
94
7.11
Results
xwOBA
39
.331
Barrel %
32
9.4
Hard-Hit %
65
37.7
K %
48
21.5
BB %
6
12.3
Chase %
26
28.2
Whiff %
83
26.4
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
102
≈ 57th pctl
Stuff+
76
if they swing
Command+
108
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
88
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
17.6%
69 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.023
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.019 better than avg · 118 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.050
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.021 worse than avg · 29 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 393 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
46.9%91.91880+17.3+6.67.1713.4%53.4%24.2%20.0%21.4%0.289
ChangeupCH
20.4%80.4

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE52°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHSLCU
Usage47%20%18%15%
MPH91.980.482.979.0
LHP Avg93.284.684.779.0
1502
+14.2
+9.8
7.16
47.1%
48.6%
34.3%
22.2%
36.0%
0.226
SliderSL
18.1%82.92321-6.1-3.87.0330.3%53.2%37.1%44.8%6.3%0.393
CurveballCU
14.6%79.02655-17.2-8.46.8730.8%46.0%36.0%11.1%31.3%0.226

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″CH · 19″SL · 23″CU · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 33″CH · 62″SL · 55″CU · 65″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.34′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHSLCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHSLCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHSLCU

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.