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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. SS peers

Rank #28 of 64

Each bar is one SS, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-200-1000+100Joey Ortiz
Joey Ortiz · #28
V⁻ -20VORP -5V⁺ 34
Joey Ortiz

Joey Ortiz

SS·MIL
Compare
Compare
PA
157
H
27
HR
1
AVG
.205
xwOBA
.299
PPG
1.32
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj85365.241.303.363.122.30017.5%7.9%9.6%791702.00—
202647157.205
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

157 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
16
.299
xBA
17
.226
.309
.258
.053
.299
16.6%
12.7%
3.9%
1
4
62
1.32
—
2025159508.229.275.316.087.27514.6%5.3%9.3%7142271.43—
2024144514.237.331.395.158.30820.0%10.9%9.1%11112671.85—
20231434.212.212.242.030.24926.5%0.0%26.5%0070.50—
xSLG
1
.296
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
3
84.5
Median EV
26
90.5
90th % EV
6
99.4
Barrel %
5
2.7
Hard-Hit %
16
33.3
Sweet-Spot %
0
24.3
Bat Speed
Avg
43
70.1
Median
26
70.0
90th %
38
75.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
41
31.0
Whiff %
84
15.3
K %
75
16.6
BB %
80
12.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
99
≈ 46th pctl
Chase cost
-3.9r
49 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.5r
54 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
45.9%
246 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.57
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1322234-10%10+56%9+50%65-50%10-67%9-26%19-29%14+36%111+44%9-33%12-55%11-29%14-20%10+46%1315+50%8+0%12-44%9+0%711113CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 246