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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Johan Oviedo

Johan Oviedo

SP·BOS
Compare
Compare
BF
19
K %
15.8%
BB %
5.3%
xwOBA
.482
PTS
-1
PPG
-1.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj19123.011004.193.9622.8%9.6%13.2%————402.10
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

19 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
32
92.6
FB Spin
43
2247
2026
1
0
3.7
0
0
0
0
9.82
10.19
15.8%
5.3%
10.5%
.482
.364
76.9%
46.2%
-1
-1.00
20259940.321003.574.8924.6%13.5%11.1%.317.20880.3%31.4%879.67
20233433186.7915004.294.1920.2%10.6%9.6%.331.28572.0%44.7%2758.09
202223860.743013.263.6822.3%9.5%12.8%.280.27977.0%50.6%1245.39
2021141362.305004.915.2017.7%12.8%4.9%.366.28570.0%50.5%473.36
20205524.703005.475.2114.3%8.9%5.4%.395.26960.3%40.7%112.20
Extension
97
7.16
Results
xwOBA
0
.482
Barrel %
0
23.1
Hard-Hit %
0
61.5
K %
11
15.8
BB %
91
5.3
Chase %
81
33.3
Whiff %
0
13.9
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
83
≈ 5th pctl
Stuff+
92
if they swing
Command+
90
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
84
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
11.6%
18 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.035
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.007 better than avg · 41 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.078
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.049 worse than avg · 15 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 155 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
34.7%93.02253+14.0+3.57.2421.4%56.0%24.0%27.3%11.1%0.390
CurveballCU
25.0%76.5

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE23°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCUSISLFC
Usage35%25%19%19%1%
MPH93.076.592.183.589.5
RHP Avg95.080.294.386.789.8
2325
-2.0
-11.8
7.03
11.1%
33.3%
11.1%
33.3%
0.0%
0.281
SinkerSI
19.4%92.12240+7.9+11.27.220.0%50.0%7.1%57.1%0.0%0.888
SliderSL
19.4%83.52377-0.0-8.47.1225.0%42.9%35.7%25.0%66.7%0.521
CutterFC
1.4%89.52177+8.5+1.97.10—0.0%100.0%0.0%——

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFC · 18″FF · 20″SI · 20″CU · 24″SL · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FC · 38″FF · 31″SI · 34″CU · 71″SL · 54″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.14′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCUSISLFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCUSISLFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCUSISLFC

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.