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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Jonathan Aranda

Jonathan Aranda

1B·TBR
Compare
Compare
PA
422
H
117
HR
14
AVG
.316
xwOBA
.385
PPG
2.31
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202663276.269.385.454.185.37824.6%14.5%10.1%1101572.49—
2025111422.316
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

422 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
93
.385
xBA
98
.294
.396
.489
.173
.385
25.4%
9.7%
15.7%
14
0
256
2.31
—
202444144.233.308.426.193.36822.2%8.3%13.9%60731.66—
202339103.230.343.368.138.28330.1%12.6%17.5%20431.10—
20223687.192.276.321.129.28926.4%9.2%17.2%20330.92—
xSLG
91
.522
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
91
93.0
Median EV
93
96.2
90th % EV
69
106.9
Barrel %
74
12.8
Hard-Hit %
93
54.1
Sweet-Spot %
99
44.0
Bat Speed
Avg
22
68.7
Median
20
70.0
90th %
30
75.4
Plate Discipline
Chase %
44
27.9
Whiff %
44
22.9
K %
23
25.4
BB %
66
9.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
99
≈ 48th pctl
Chase cost
-31.6r
306 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-13.2r
230 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
48.5%
1,759 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.55
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
5+17%6+8%13+0%112+13%82+45%11+17%24+24%33+15%40+18%39+18%11+0%9+46%13+3%39-29%70-30%64-4%53+62%34+14%14+53%19-7%41-24%50-23%70-26%50+37%35+8%12+33%9+48%21+19%21+0%25+36%25+0%82+0%74+17%61+17%63CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000