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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 1B peers

Rank #18 of 40

Each bar is one 1B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda · #18
V⁻ -24VORP -8V⁺ 37
Jonathan Aranda

Jonathan Aranda

1B·TBR
Compare
Compare
PA
276
H
61
HR
11
AVG
.269
xwOBA
.378
PPG
2.49
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj93402.258.348.431.173.34824.8%10.8%13.9%1412032.18—
202663276.269
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
84
.378
xBA
60
.263
xSLG
.385
.454
.185
.378
24.6%
14.5%
10.1%
11
0
157
2.49
—
2025111422.316.396.489.173.38525.4%9.7%15.7%1402562.31—
202444144.233.308.426.193.36822.2%8.3%13.9%60731.66—
202339103.230.343.368.138.28330.1%12.6%17.5%20431.10—
20223687.192.276.321.129.28926.4%9.2%17.2%20330.92—
74
.478
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
74
90.8
Median EV
56
93.1
90th % EV
36
103.9
Barrel %
72
12.2
Hard-Hit %
70
46.3
Sweet-Spot %
70
38.4
Bat Speed
Avg
28
68.7
Median
23
69.7
90th %
26
74.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
55
28.2
Whiff %
62
19.4
K %
25
24.6
BB %
88
14.5
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
100
≈ 51th pctl
Chase cost
-6.8r
74 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-3.1r
55 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
47.2%
392 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.52
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
23225442+50%10+0%13+8%13+13%15+22%94+33%6+15%13-24%29-21%28-21%28+45%11+17%6+58%12-8%13-16%19-21%28+6%17+64%1135+25%8-29%7+30%10+50%62121121CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 392