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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Jonathan Cannon

Jonathan Cannon

SP·CHW
Compare
Compare
BF
3
K %
0.0%
BB %
100.0%
xwOBA
.700
PTS
-5
PPG
-5.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj15643.024004.924.6816.8%8.5%8.3%————432.83
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

3 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
70
94.7
FB Spin
86
2418
2026
1
0
0.0
0
0
0
0
—
—
0.0%
100.0%
-100.0%
.700
—
66.7%
—
-5
-5.00
20252217103.7410005.825.1018.5%8.2%10.3%.356.30668.2%37.6%793.59
20242422128.3511104.424.5317.3%7.6%9.7%.330.29072.6%38.3%1576.54
Extension
26
6.24
Results
xwOBA
0
.700
Barrel %
0
—
Hard-Hit %
0
—
K %
0
0.0
BB %
0
100.0
Chase %
0
0.0
Whiff %
100
100.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
-10
≈ 1th pctl
Stuff+
158
if they swing
Command+
48
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
100
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
0.0%
0 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
—
RV per pitch · league 0.042
— on avg · 0 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.088
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.059 worse than avg · 7 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 14 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
57.1%94.72418+16.5+8.46.23100.0%12.5%25.0%0.0%—0.711
SweeperST
21.4%83.72676

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE27°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSTSLCH
Usage57%21%14%7%
MPH94.783.784.487.3
RHP Avg95.083.386.786.9

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 22″SL · 29″ST · 31″CH · 30″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 27″SL · 51″ST · 55″CH · 45″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (3.81′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSTSLCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSTSLCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSTSLCH

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.

+2.5
-13.2
6.20
—
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
—
0.711
SliderSL
14.3%84.42554+3.5-5.06.30—0.0%0.0%0.0%——
ChangeupCH
7.1%87.31418-3.2+15.26.30—0.0%0.0%0.0%——