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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #396 of 505

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Jordan Hicks
Jordan Hicks · #60
V⁻ —VORP -62V⁺ —
Jordan Hicks

Jordan Hicks

SP / RP·CHW
Compare
Compare
BF
87
K %
17.2%
BB %
19.5%
xwOBA
.339
PTS
15
PPG
0.75
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj26026.012004.103.7821.0%11.0%10.0%————371.41
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

87 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
99
98.4
FB Spin
1
1877
2026
20
0
17.7
0
1
1
3
5.60
5.19
17.2%
19.5%
-2.3%
.339
.358
73.8%
53.7%
15
0.75
2025351072.327226.724.3718.5%10.2%8.3%.334.34157.8%56.7%431.23
20243122119.357123.854.0420.0%9.8%10.2%.339.31075.9%50.8%2016.48
202369070.03912143.093.1428.3%11.2%17.1%.285.31873.9%58.9%2083.01
202240866.036094.774.0124.0%13.3%10.7%.309.27067.8%58.2%1142.85
202113013.010144.154.0222.7%22.7%0.0%.281.19466.7%70.8%393.00
201931030.7221532.933.1328.2%10.0%18.2%.236.22974.5%67.2%1555.00
201875184.3346243.523.5620.6%13.3%7.3%.298.26372.0%61.6%2273.03
Extension
22
6.20
Results
xwOBA
28
.339
Barrel %
99
1.9
Hard-Hit %
83
35.2
K %
19
17.2
BB %
0
19.5
Chase %
0
20.2
Whiff %
9
17.1
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
105
≈ 68th pctl
Stuff+
112
if they swing
Command+
94
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
106
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
7.9%
16 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.058
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.016 worse than avg · 61 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.045
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.016 worse than avg · 7 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 202 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SinkerSI
65.5%98.41846+6.9+17.56.277.8%56.5%23.1%21.3%18.5%0.307
SweeperST
26.7%87.3

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE31°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SISTFFFSSL
Usage65%27%4%2%2%
MPH98.487.397.588.487.0
RHP Avg94.383.395.086.786.7
2168
+1.5
-6.8
6.14
26.3%
50.0%
25.0%
18.2%
0.0%
0.319
4-Seam FastballFF
3.6%97.52050+10.4+13.16.130.0%16.7%0.0%20.0%0.0%0.089
Split-FingerFS
2.4%88.4813-3.7+8.16.3050.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%0.271
SliderSL
1.8%87.02173+2.3-0.26.03100.0%33.3%33.3%0.0%——

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 14″ST · 23″SI · 22″SL · 23″FS · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 19″ST · 44″SI · 17″SL · 47″FS · 43″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.28′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SISTFFFSSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SISTFFFSSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SISTFFFSSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.