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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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José Abreu

José Abreu

1B·FA
Compare
Compare
PA
595
H
128
HR
18
AVG
.237
xwOBA
.316
PPG
2.13
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202438120.124.168.195.071.20123.3%3.3%20.0%20230.61—
2023158595.237
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
18
.316
xBA
25
.243
xSLG
.299
.383
.146
.316
21.8%
7.1%
14.7%
18
1
337
2.13
—
2022168681.303.380.444.141.37616.2%9.1%7.1%1504172.48—
2021164659.261.356.481.220.34921.7%9.3%12.4%3024422.70—
202066263.315.370.614.299.40022.4%6.8%15.6%1902263.42—
2019166694.283.335.502.219.36021.9%5.2%16.7%3324362.63—
2018132553.265.329.473.208.36319.7%6.7%13.0%2223252.46—
2017165675.304.356.552.248.36817.6%5.2%12.4%3335073.07—
2016168695.293.357.468.175.35418.0%6.8%11.2%2504222.51—
2015165668.290.348.502.212.34521.0%5.8%15.2%3004462.70—
29
.413
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
39
89.0
Median EV
41
91.9
90th % EV
58
105.7
Barrel %
47
8.7
Hard-Hit %
46
41.6
Sweet-Spot %
26
33.9
Bat Speed
Avg
74
72.1
Median
72
73.3
90th %
78
78.9
Plate Discipline
Chase %
11
36.3
Whiff %
33
24.5
K %
42
21.8
BB %
31
7.1
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
82
≈ 4th pctl
Chase cost
-62.5r
569 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-19.5r
378 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
50.2%
2,576 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.18
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
3215355+25%8+47%17+20%25+24%29+31%36+45%11+10%10+44%18-9%33-35%54-33%63-23%48+53%36+15%13+33%30+23%57-37%60-28%64-13%38+47%155+46%26+38%34+30%37-7%29+37%19+30%104+30%10+43%14+13%15+25%833CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000