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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. SS peers

Rank #43 of 64

Each bar is one SS, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-200-1000+100Jose Fernandez
Jose Fernandez · #43
V⁻ -55VORP -26V⁺ -38
Jose Fernandez

Jose Fernandez

1B / 3B / SS·ARI
Compare
Compare
PA
178
H
42
HR
3
AVG
.253
xwOBA
.273
PPG
1.35
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj65281.247.282.369.122.28923.1%4.5%18.6%651101.69—
202652178.253
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

178 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
2
.273
xBA
26
.238
.287
.349
.096
.273
22.5%
3.9%
18.6%
3
7
70
1.35
—
xSLG
11
.342
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
3
84.7
Median EV
54
93.0
90th % EV
44
104.5
Barrel %
11
3.9
Hard-Hit %
33
38.8
Sweet-Spot %
4
27.9
Bat Speed
Avg
65
71.7
Median
83
74.8
90th %
80
79.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
11
36.6
Whiff %
40
23.3
K %
37
22.5
BB %
4
3.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
74
≈ 1th pctl
Chase cost
-5.7r
48 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.1r
35 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
47.5%
217 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.61
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
123232555311+33%65-15%13-44%9-29%732+43%7+13%16-56%18-43%14-12%842+33%6+46%13+13%854254211CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 217