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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Jose Quintana

Jose Quintana

SP·COL
Compare
Compare
BF
181
K %
11.0%
BB %
9.4%
xwOBA
.343
PTS
28
PPG
3.11
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj6631.013005.525.0414.3%8.9%5.4%————162.71
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
6
89.8
FB Spin
13
2136
Extension
2026
9
9
41.0
2
3
0
0
5.27
5.34
11.0%
9.4%
1.6%
.343
.285
65.9%
35.7%
28
3.11
20252726139.7118004.064.8716.0%9.0%7.0%.350.26273.8%42.7%2178.04
20243535187.71012003.884.5018.8%8.8%10.0%.331.26376.7%48.2%3078.77
2023131375.736003.573.3618.8%7.5%11.3%.330.30672.0%41.9%1138.69
20223636180.067003.253.2720.2%6.9%13.3%.309.30073.5%47.0%3279.08
2021311272.304046.475.1628.6%11.8%16.8%.341.36466.2%46.0%732.35
20204110.000014.502.9028.6%7.1%21.5%.301.36069.0%42.3%215.25
20193332177.0149014.583.6720.4%6.2%14.2%.328.32266.5%45.4%2958.94
20183434183.31311003.984.3721.4%9.2%12.2%.323.28377.1%44.7%3199.38
20173736209.01212014.093.5626.2%7.7%18.5%.311.29170.1%46.1%41711.27
43
6.43
Results
xwOBA
22
.343
Barrel %
48
8.4
Hard-Hit %
91
32.9
K %
0
11.0
BB %
29
9.4
Chase %
64
32.0
Whiff %
36
20.6
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
67
≈ 1th pctl
Stuff+
108
if they swing
Command+
71
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
98
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.5%
13 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.069
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.026 worse than avg · 55 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.031
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.001 worse than avg · 11 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 153 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
37.9%89.92189+17.0+3.86.6026.9%44.8%25.9%28.1%11.1%0.406
ChangeupCH
22.9%85.4

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE43°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHSISVCU
Usage38%23%20%10%8%
MPH89.985.490.179.979.6
LHP Avg93.284.693.0—79.0
1360
+5.6
+14.5
6.59
36.8%
11.4%
20.0%
48.4%
0.0%
0.430
SinkerSI
20.3%90.12153+12.5+15.46.600.0%45.2%25.8%5.9%12.5%0.399
SlurveSV
10.5%79.92265+1.8-9.16.5114.3%31.3%6.3%18.2%0.0%0.696
CurveballCU
8.5%79.62236-5.3-6.16.5916.7%30.8%23.1%33.3%0.0%0.527

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″SI · 20″CH · 23″CU · 24″SV · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 38″SI · 38″CH · 49″CU · 63″SV · 61″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.03′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHSISVCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHSISVCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHSISVCU

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.