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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #87 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150José Soriano
José Soriano · #60
V⁻ —VORP -14V⁺ —
José Soriano

José Soriano

SP·LAA
Compare
Compare
BF
342
K %
25.4%
BB %
11.7%
xwOBA
.321
PTS
192
PPG
13.71
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj2020111.077003.693.5022.7%10.2%12.6%————20310.13
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
91
97.0
FB Spin
1
2039
Extension
2026
14
14
82.0
7
4
0
0
2.96
3.98
25.4%
11.7%
13.7%
.321
.262
82.3%
52.1%
192
13.71
20253232174.31011004.183.7721.0%10.8%10.2%.313.30268.6%66.0%2688.38
20242321119.077013.253.5720.7%9.6%11.1%.322.27272.0%60.1%23710.30
202338042.0130153.643.8129.9%12.3%17.6%.314.30571.4%52.5%1122.95
83
6.79
Results
xwOBA
52
.321
Barrel %
38
9.0
Hard-Hit %
72
37.0
K %
75
25.4
BB %
9
11.7
Chase %
63
31.9
Whiff %
94
29.4
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
111
≈ 86th pctl
Stuff+
121
if they swing
Command+
109
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
118
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
6.4%
34 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.030
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.012 better than avg · 156 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.020
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.009 better than avg · 48 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 535 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SinkerSI
31.3%96.81869+2.2+14.56.8126.1%43.0%28.5%34.9%23.1%0.255
Knuckle CurveKC
26.5%85.92411

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE33°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SIKCFFFSSL
Usage31%27%24%12%6%
MPH96.885.998.092.790.5
RHP Avg94.383.095.086.786.7
-6.8
-12.3
6.77
46.7%
36.7%
37.5%
44.4%
35.6%
0.187
4-Seam FastballFF
23.8%98.02200+13.5+9.56.7513.0%53.9%34.8%24.5%27.3%0.387
Split-FingerFS
12.4%92.71501-1.4+11.26.8337.0%33.3%28.3%32.5%33.3%0.194
SliderSL
6.0%90.52361+2.8-1.86.770.0%55.2%27.6%23.1%0.0%0.302

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 21″SI · 23″SL · 25″FS · 24″KC · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 21″SI · 23″SL · 38″FS · 32″KC · 50″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.10′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SIKCFFFSSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SIKCFFFSSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SIKCFFFSSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.