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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #191 of 505

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100José Suarez
José Suarez · #60
V⁻ —VORP -37V⁺ —
José Suarez

José Suarez

SP / RP·ATH
Compare
Compare
BF
157
K %
25.5%
BB %
10.8%
xwOBA
.309
PTS
34
PPG
1.62
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj22022.011003.923.8322.7%8.6%14.1%————401.83
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

157 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
31
92.6
FB Spin
73
2356
2026
21
1
33.0
0
2
1
1
5.73
2.80
25.5%
10.8%
14.7%
.309
.433
66.0%
43.9%
34
1.62
20259221.721112.493.6119.8%12.3%7.5%.324.27980.4%49.1%546.00
202423355.312205.694.4223.3%11.3%12.0%.341.32564.4%39.9%733.17
202311733.713028.297.1717.0%12.1%4.9%.372.34066.0%33.6%-5-0.45
20222523119.0108004.013.7622.3%7.1%15.2%.301.29474.4%41.3%2259.00
20212514100.088003.694.0220.6%8.7%11.9%.324.26473.2%48.6%1887.52
2020222.3020038.5714.678.7%21.7%-13.0%.602.64341.1%46.7%-36-18.00
2019191581.026007.116.6119.0%8.7%10.3%.354.32568.6%37.7%341.79
Extension
10
5.96
Results
xwOBA
65
.309
Barrel %
100
1.0
Hard-Hit %
90
32.7
K %
78
25.5
BB %
13
10.8
Chase %
67
32.0
Whiff %
81
25.7
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
102
≈ 56th pctl
Stuff+
111
if they swing
Command+
96
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
104
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.2%
23 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.043
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.001 worse than avg · 90 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.025
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.004 better than avg · 25 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 282 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
42.5%93.62390+17.2+7.26.0115.8%45.5%19.3%16.7%4.2%0.474
ChangeupCH
29.0%83.9

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE43°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHSLSI
Usage43%29%20%8%
MPH93.683.983.192.5
LHP Avg93.284.684.793.0
1634
+2.3
+14.2
6.07
39.5%
31.7%
30.0%
53.7%
26.5%
0.227
SliderSL
20.3%83.12872-1.6-5.95.9920.8%50.0%26.2%38.1%18.2%0.273
SinkerSI
8.2%92.52224+12.3+14.46.0911.1%52.9%23.5%37.5%0.0%0.233

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″SI · 19″CH · 23″SL · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 32″SI · 34″CH · 54″SL · 58″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.15′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHSLSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHSLSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHSLSI

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.