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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Josh Lowe

Josh Lowe

OF·LAA
Compare
Compare
PA
503
H
136
HR
20
AVG
.291
xwOBA
.340
PPG
2.47
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202641134.184.227.320.136.26229.1%4.5%24.6%51310.76—
2025112436.219
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

503 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
55
.340
xBA
74
.268
.284
.365
.146
.299
25.0%
7.6%
17.4%
11
19
197
1.76
—
2024106388.240.303.390.150.30231.7%8.2%23.5%10251431.35—
2023135503.291.336.498.207.34024.7%6.2%18.5%20323342.47—
202259198.221.284.343.122.27433.3%7.6%25.7%24510.86—
2021121.0001.0001.000.000.4680.0%50.0%-50.0%0133.00—
xSLG
72
.474
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
35
88.8
Median EV
28
91.1
90th % EV
47
105.1
Barrel %
66
11.0
Hard-Hit %
34
39.7
Sweet-Spot %
76
38.0
Bat Speed
Avg
78
72.5
Median
74
73.5
90th %
74
78.5
Plate Discipline
Chase %
12
35.7
Whiff %
19
27.6
K %
21
24.7
BB %
21
6.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
87
≈ 10th pctl
Chase cost
-50.0r
451 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-13.1r
225 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
52.9%
2,107 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.00
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
3+67%6+25%12+8%12-33%65+0%6+13%15+64%25+11%37+19%32+15%33+50%18+0%9+55%22+38%53-32%59-22%64-15%41+9%34+22%18+46%28+29%35-28%53-12%56-3%33+16%25+33%12+38%13+42%19+12%33+20%15+26%19+36%11+17%653+20%10442CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000