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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Josh Lowe

Josh Lowe

OF·LAA
Compare
Compare
PA
388
H
85
HR
10
AVG
.240
xwOBA
.302
PPG
1.35
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202641134.184.227.320.136.26229.1%4.5%24.6%51310.76—
2025112436.219
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

388 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
9
.302
xBA
5
.221
.284
.365
.146
.299
25.0%
7.6%
17.4%
11
19
197
1.76
—
2024106388.240.303.390.150.30231.7%8.2%23.5%10251431.35—
2023135503.291.336.498.207.34024.7%6.2%18.5%20323342.47—
202259198.221.284.343.122.27433.3%7.6%25.7%24510.86—
2021121.0001.0001.000.000.4680.0%50.0%-50.0%0133.00—
xSLG
22
.394
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
69
90.8
Median EV
80
94.3
90th % EV
49
104.9
Barrel %
61
10.3
Hard-Hit %
69
46.1
Sweet-Spot %
81
38.8
Bat Speed
Avg
69
71.7
Median
65
72.6
90th %
67
77.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
17
33.0
Whiff %
20
27.1
K %
1
31.7
BB %
48
8.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
85
≈ 7th pctl
Chase cost
-37.9r
335 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-12.1r
202 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
51.4%
1,667 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.00
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
235+6%17+14%742+57%7+44%27+48%25+21%38+17%35+21%24+0%12+55%31+26%39-26%57-29%76-38%61+14%35-8%12+75%24+19%43-30%44-23%61-12%50+43%28+17%12+41%17+70%20+30%20+43%14+42%12+43%7+0%6+50%8+13%853CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000