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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Josh Lowe

Josh Lowe

OF·LAA
Compare
Compare
PA
436
H
87
HR
11
AVG
.219
xwOBA
.299
PPG
1.76
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202641134.184.227.320.136.26229.1%4.5%24.6%51310.76—
2025112436.219
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

436 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
5
.299
xBA
17
.234
.284
.365
.146
.299
25.0%
7.6%
17.4%
11
19
197
1.76
—
2024106388.240.303.390.150.30231.7%8.2%23.5%10251431.35—
2023135503.291.336.498.207.34024.7%6.2%18.5%20323342.47—
202259198.221.284.343.122.27433.3%7.6%25.7%24510.86—
2021121.0001.0001.000.000.4680.0%50.0%-50.0%0133.00—
xSLG
9
.366
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
19
87.9
Median EV
33
92.2
90th % EV
25
103.8
Barrel %
16
5.9
Hard-Hit %
26
39.3
Sweet-Spot %
53
36.2
Bat Speed
Avg
52
70.6
Median
50
72.0
90th %
58
77.5
Plate Discipline
Chase %
7
36.9
Whiff %
31
24.8
K %
26
25.0
BB %
36
7.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
86
≈ 8th pctl
Chase cost
-42.9r
389 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-13.4r
229 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
54.1%
1,845 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.05
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
3+25%8+17%6+14%7+0%735+30%10+48%23+18%33+23%39+14%43-7%15+0%7+41%32+43%56-35%55-25%69-15%54+10%40+20%20+71%21+16%38-19%48-16%51-17%41+45%29+27%11+28%18+38%16+21%24+26%27+41%17+44%1852+33%6+67%65411CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000