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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 1B peers

Rank #10 of 40

Each bar is one 1B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Josh Naylor
Josh Naylor · #10
V⁻ 19VORP 33V⁺ 87
Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor

1B·SEA
Compare
Compare
PA
272
H
64
HR
7
AVG
.259
xwOBA
.330
PPG
2.35
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj92396.260.327.422.162.33314.7%8.5%6.2%13122362.57—
202663272.259
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
46
.330
xBA
74
.275
xSLG
.322
.372
.113
.330
13.2%
7.7%
5.5%
7
12
148
2.35
—
2025162605.294.356.461.167.34013.7%7.9%5.8%20324672.88—
2024168636.242.320.454.212.34416.5%9.1%7.4%3174322.57—
2023127496.307.358.488.181.35213.7%6.7%7.0%17103652.87—
2022132500.255.321.450.195.33216.0%7.6%8.4%2063142.38—
202174251.252.300.397.145.31317.9%5.6%12.3%721311.77—
202044104.247.291.330.083.31211.5%4.8%6.7%11631.43—
201995279.249.317.403.154.30122.9%9.0%13.9%811261.33—
42
.406
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
22
87.3
Median EV
32
91.2
90th % EV
10
100.7
Barrel %
17
5.2
Hard-Hit %
28
37.6
Sweet-Spot %
17
31.9
Bat Speed
Avg
22
68.3
Median
26
70.0
90th %
22
74.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
17
35.3
Whiff %
69
18.4
K %
86
13.2
BB %
30
7.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
104
≈ 64th pctl
Chase cost
-6.2r
75 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.0r
21 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
59.9%
302 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.38
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1112234+10%10+17%6+43%732+73%11+10%10-21%28+4%23+13%245+63%8+64%11+40%10+0%12-5%19-11%9+71%715+0%7-8%13+18%11542121CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 302