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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor

1B·SEA
Compare
Compare
PA
496
H
139
HR
17
AVG
.307
xwOBA
.352
PPG
2.87
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202663272.259.322.372.113.33013.2%7.7%5.5%7121482.35—
2025162605.294
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

496 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
70
.352
xBA
87
.285
.356
.461
.167
.340
13.7%
7.9%
5.8%
20
32
467
2.88
—
2024168636.242.320.454.212.34416.5%9.1%7.4%3174322.57—
2023127496.307.358.488.181.35213.7%6.7%7.0%17103652.87—
2022132500.255.321.450.195.33216.0%7.6%8.4%2063142.38—
202174251.252.300.397.145.31317.9%5.6%12.3%721311.77—
202044104.247.291.330.083.31211.5%4.8%6.7%11631.43—
201995279.249.317.403.154.30122.9%9.0%13.9%811261.33—
xSLG
73
.476
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
41
89.1
Median EV
41
91.8
90th % EV
58
105.7
Barrel %
43
8.2
Hard-Hit %
46
41.2
Sweet-Spot %
52
36.6
Bat Speed
Avg
67
71.5
Median
72
73.2
90th %
74
78.5
Plate Discipline
Chase %
5
39.6
Whiff %
77
17.6
K %
92
13.7
BB %
27
6.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
94
≈ 29th pctl
Chase cost
-38.7r
421 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-6.8r
147 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
56.5%
1,659 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.74
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
+0%7+25%8+25%12+33%6442+33%15+38%29+29%48+36%39+23%26+42%12+0%7+50%36+16%73-22%63-13%55-2%42+74%23+44%9+50%24+6%49-14%44-14%50+13%46+84%19+75%8+24%17+47%17+20%25+39%18+71%24+63%835+0%75351CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000