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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor

1B·SEA
Compare
Compare
PA
636
H
137
HR
31
AVG
.242
xwOBA
.344
PPG
2.57
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202666291.254.318.371.117.33112.7%7.9%4.8%8131582.39—
2025162605.294
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
66
.344
xBA
62
.258
xSLG
.356
.461
.167
.340
13.7%
7.9%
5.8%
20
32
467
2.88
—
2024168636.242.320.454.212.34416.5%9.1%7.4%3174322.57—
2023127496.307.358.488.181.35213.7%6.7%7.0%17103652.87—
2022132500.255.321.450.195.33216.0%7.6%8.4%2063142.38—
202174251.252.300.397.145.31317.9%5.6%12.3%721311.77—
202044104.247.291.330.083.31211.5%4.8%6.7%11631.43—
201995279.249.317.403.154.30122.9%9.0%13.9%811261.33—
57
.452
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
57
89.9
Median EV
49
92.5
90th % EV
66
106.1
Barrel %
46
8.4
Hard-Hit %
44
40.9
Sweet-Spot %
6
30.5
Bat Speed
Avg
62
71.0
Median
65
72.7
90th %
65
77.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
21
32.2
Whiff %
60
20.7
K %
77
16.5
BB %
54
9.1
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
97
≈ 38th pctl
Chase cost
-48.0r
496 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-12.5r
233 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
50.4%
2,301 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.63
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
+13%8+17%12+25%12+8%12+7%14+17%65+29%17+45%38+25%48+21%52+26%35+36%14+0%7+45%33+19%52-26%72-25%75-13%31+68%22+56%9+29%28+2%43-35%52-27%45-3%31+59%174+10%10+32%22+0%13+23%31+25%8+50%632+0%63411CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000