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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Josh Naylor

Josh Naylor

1B·SEA
Compare
Compare
PA
605
H
160
HR
20
AVG
.294
xwOBA
.340
PPG
2.88
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202663272.259.322.372.113.33013.2%7.7%5.5%7121482.35—
2025162605.294
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
61
.340
xBA
87
.279
xSLG
.356
.461
.167
.340
13.7%
7.9%
5.8%
20
32
467
2.88
—
2024168636.242.320.454.212.34416.5%9.1%7.4%3174322.57—
2023127496.307.358.488.181.35213.7%6.7%7.0%17103652.87—
2022132500.255.321.450.195.33216.0%7.6%8.4%2063142.38—
202174251.252.300.397.145.31317.9%5.6%12.3%721311.77—
202044104.247.291.330.083.31211.5%4.8%6.7%11631.43—
201995279.249.317.403.154.30122.9%9.0%13.9%811261.33—
53
.446
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
32
89.1
Median EV
30
92.0
90th % EV
31
104.3
Barrel %
20
6.7
Hard-Hit %
31
41.9
Sweet-Spot %
12
32.7
Bat Speed
Avg
22
68.7
Median
26
70.4
90th %
35
76.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
7
37.0
Whiff %
61
20.7
K %
89
13.7
BB %
39
7.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
97
≈ 39th pctl
Chase cost
-44.1r
481 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-9.6r
214 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
53.7%
2,041 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.63
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
+17%6+38%13+28%18+29%7+15%13+10%102+27%26+26%35+44%43+44%41+48%29+67%9+33%6+32%28+19%57-24%70-21%61-8%37+88%24+38%8+48%23+4%46-19%47-18%49-6%36+71%21+25%8+0%7+40%25+21%24+32%22+52%21+67%624534321CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000