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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Josh Smith

Josh Smith

1B / 2B / 3B / SS·TEX
Compare
Compare
PA
233
H
36
HR
6
AVG
.184
xwOBA
.323
PPG
1.15
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202630109.215.324.237.022.30418.3%12.8%5.5%02311.03—
2025145564.250
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

233 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
28
.323
xBA
0
.205
.335
.365
.115
.314
17.7%
9.8%
7.9%
10
12
263
1.81
—
2024153592.258.339.394.136.31120.4%7.8%12.6%13122961.93—
202384233.184.304.327.143.32323.6%10.7%12.9%61971.15—
202278255.195.308.247.052.30119.6%11.0%8.6%251091.40—
xSLG
19
.394
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
19
87.7
Median EV
18
90.6
90th % EV
53
105.3
Barrel %
63
10.5
Hard-Hit %
18
36.4
Sweet-Spot %
8
31.5
Bat Speed
Avg
16
67.6
Median
17
69.4
90th %
18
74.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
85
21.8
Whiff %
70
18.6
K %
26
23.6
BB %
75
10.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
104
≈ 65th pctl
Chase cost
-13.9r
142 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-10.0r
169 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
42.3%
1,001 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.39
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
51+0%13+0%8+0%8+0%93+7%14+45%22+5%37-11%37+9%35+9%11+0%11+40%20-33%51-39%70-30%64-31%49+15%26+0%7+21%14-10%42-31%64-22%60-5%38+38%21+0%7+27%15+45%31+38%32+21%24+33%2152+17%6+0%7544CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000