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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Josh Smith

Josh Smith

1B / 2B / 3B / SS·TEX
Compare
Compare
PA
592
H
135
HR
13
AVG
.258
xwOBA
.311
PPG
1.93
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202630109.215.324.237.022.30418.3%12.8%5.5%02311.03—
2025145564.250
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
15
.311
xBA
35
.243
xSLG
.335
.365
.115
.314
17.7%
9.8%
7.9%
10
12
263
1.81
—
2024153592.258.339.394.136.31120.4%7.8%12.6%13122961.93—
202384233.184.304.327.143.32323.6%10.7%12.9%61971.15—
202278255.195.308.247.052.30119.6%11.0%8.6%251091.40—
8
.366
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
14
87.1
Median EV
19
90.5
90th % EV
16
102.4
Barrel %
8
3.7
Hard-Hit %
23
37.1
Sweet-Spot %
39
35.1
Bat Speed
Avg
17
68.0
Median
21
69.9
90th %
17
74.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
66
25.5
Whiff %
65
20.1
K %
53
20.4
BB %
39
7.8
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
110
≈ 85th pctl
Chase cost
-33.3r
356 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-17.8r
347 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
46.7%
2,321 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.21
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
+0%6+0%7+0%105+0%9+0%92+21%14+12%33-3%34-5%42+5%22+9%114+41%27+2%60-33%81-41%75-37%40+24%25+0%10+54%35+11%53-19%64-11%55+2%43+41%224+50%10+50%16+30%23+45%20+53%1944554511CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000