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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Josh Smith

Josh Smith

1B / 2B / 3B / SS·TEX
Compare
Compare
PA
564
H
124
HR
10
AVG
.250
xwOBA
.314
PPG
1.81
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202630109.215.324.237.022.30418.3%12.8%5.5%02311.03—
2025145564.250
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
20
.314
xBA
36
.245
xSLG
.335
.365
.115
.314
17.7%
9.8%
7.9%
10
12
263
1.81
—
2024153592.258.339.394.136.31120.4%7.8%12.6%13122961.93—
202384233.184.304.327.143.32323.6%10.7%12.9%61971.15—
202278255.195.308.247.052.30119.6%11.0%8.6%251091.40—
7
.364
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
8
86.5
Median EV
6
89.1
90th % EV
10
101.8
Barrel %
10
5.0
Hard-Hit %
9
31.1
Sweet-Spot %
46
35.8
Bat Speed
Avg
11
67.4
Median
11
68.8
90th %
8
73.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
62
25.4
Whiff %
76
18.2
K %
70
17.7
BB %
66
9.8
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
108
≈ 79th pctl
Chase cost
-32.4r
352 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-19.8r
385 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
45.0%
2,333 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.23
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
2+0%8+9%11+11%9+0%1424+25%12+19%27+7%29-6%50+0%27+0%13+0%7+56%18-22%45-41%71-47%70-34%58+17%24+17%6+33%30+29%41-34%58-37%67-21%39+48%25+0%10+29%14+29%21+54%28+11%19+39%23+33%9353+13%8+33%6311CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000