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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. SS peers

Rank #26 of 64

Each bar is one SS, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-200-1000+100J.P. Crawford
J.P. Crawford · #26
V⁻ -35VORP 0V⁺ 5
J.P. Crawford

J.P. Crawford

SS·SEA
Compare
Compare
PA
233
H
44
HR
10
AVG
.228
xwOBA
.357
PPG
2.35
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj92396.240.337.363.122.32018.8%12.2%6.6%831862.03—
202655233.228
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
65
.357
xBA
45
.254
xSLG
.358
.409
.181
.357
18.9%
14.6%
4.3%
10
1
129
2.35
—
2025171656.264.351.369.105.33118.6%11.3%7.3%1283381.98—
2024110453.201.303.320.119.31322.5%11.5%11.0%951851.68—
2023147639.265.380.437.172.34319.6%14.7%4.9%1923702.52—
2022159605.242.341.335.093.32013.2%11.2%2.0%643001.89—
2021165687.273.340.376.103.30116.6%8.4%8.2%943322.01—
202053232.255.339.338.083.31816.8%9.9%6.9%261192.25—
201992399.224.313.368.144.29320.8%10.8%10.0%751842.00—
201854137.214.319.393.179.29527.0%9.5%17.5%33651.20—
20172387.214.360.300.086.29225.3%18.4%6.9%01301.30—
49
.419
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
25
87.8
Median EV
61
93.5
90th % EV
31
103.4
Barrel %
54
9.3
Hard-Hit %
23
36.7
Sweet-Spot %
88
41.3
Bat Speed
Avg
42
69.9
Median
36
70.9
90th %
46
76.4
Plate Discipline
Chase %
94
19.7
Whiff %
83
15.5
K %
60
18.9
BB %
88
14.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
108
≈ 79th pctl
Chase cost
-2.5r
27 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.0r
42 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
30.8%
208 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.19
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
3233344+7%14-30%1054255-20%15-54%13-29%7+0%71+17%6-45%11-40%10-36%143423535+30%104122CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 208