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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
J.P. France

J.P. France

SP·HOU
Compare
Compare
BF
31
K %
12.9%
BB %
16.1%
xwOBA
.419
PTS
1
PPG
0.33
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj12012.011014.614.9019.9%10.6%9.2%————191.56
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

31 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
7
89.9
FB Spin
96
2511
2026
3
0
6.7
0
0
0
0
8.10
6.55
12.9%
16.1%
-3.2%
.419
.250
56.6%
47.6%
1
0.33
2025204.010002.252.1031.3%12.5%18.8%.317.22275.0%11.1%168.00
20247732.714006.895.4318.0%9.8%8.2%.370.30762.2%30.2%71.00
20232724141.3116003.954.4717.4%8.1%9.3%.340.29475.8%42.2%2358.70
Extension
28
6.28
Results
xwOBA
0
.419
Barrel %
2
14.3
Hard-Hit %
30
42.9
K %
1
12.9
BB %
0
16.1
Chase %
0
21.1
Whiff %
0
13.2
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
83
≈ 4th pctl
Stuff+
90
if they swing
Command+
76
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
82
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
17.9%
21 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.069
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.027 worse than avg · 33 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.037
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.008 worse than avg · 10 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 117 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
CurveballCU
28.2%76.22592-17.4-10.26.3821.4%39.4%18.2%20.0%18.8%0.252
CutterFC
23.1%87.2

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE41°100 PITCHSAMPLE
CUFCFFCHSTSI
Usage28%23%22%15%6%5%
MPH76.287.292.386.179.891.6
RHP Avg80.289.895.086.983.394.3
2688
+6.9
-4.9
6.21
6.3%
63.0%
14.8%
30.0%
0.0%
0.161
4-Seam FastballFF
22.2%92.32357+14.5+3.96.170.0%46.2%23.1%7.1%12.5%0.430
ChangeupCH
15.4%86.12016+8.7+14.96.4125.0%44.4%22.2%20.0%0.0%0.694
SweeperST
6.0%79.82637+6.0-14.66.3120.0%71.4%28.6%50.0%0.0%—
SinkerSI
5.1%91.62374+11.7+14.26.200.0%83.3%33.3%100.0%0.0%0.478

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″ST · 18″FC · 19″SI · 17″CH · 19″CU · 23″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 32″ST · 62″FC · 43″SI · 35″CH · 47″CU · 74″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.27′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
CUFCFFCHSTSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
CUFCFFCHSTSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
CUFCFFCHSTSI

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.