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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #2 of 234

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Juan Soto
Juan Soto · #2
V⁻ 88VORP 143V⁺ 186
Juan Soto

Juan Soto

OF·NYM
Compare
Compare
PA
222
H
54
HR
15
AVG
.283
xwOBA
.433
PPG
3.35
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj100431.278.411.545.268.41917.3%18.3%-1.1%25123403.40—
202652222.283
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

222 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
99
.433
xBA
93
.297
.377
.555
.272
.433
13.5%
13.1%
0.4%
15
6
174
3.35
—
2025163716.263.398.524.261.43819.1%17.7%1.4%43385633.45—
2024176714.288.421.568.280.46616.7%18.1%-1.4%4176583.74—
2023163709.274.413.518.244.41418.2%18.6%-0.4%35125193.18—
2022176665.242.401.451.209.41014.4%20.3%-5.9%2774992.84—
2021157654.313.468.534.221.44514.2%22.2%-8.0%2995413.45—
202050198.346.485.686.340.50114.1%20.7%-6.6%1362144.28—
2019172659.282.404.548.266.41220.0%16.4%3.6%34135703.31—
2018118495.292.405.516.224.38120.0%16.0%4.0%2253543.00—
xSLG
99
.621
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
90
92.8
Median EV
39
91.8
90th % EV
80
107.5
Barrel %
94
16.7
Hard-Hit %
84
50.0
Sweet-Spot %
26
33.3
Bat Speed
Avg
40
69.8
Median
44
71.4
90th %
40
76.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
93
21.2
Whiff %
69
18.8
K %
85
13.5
BB %
79
13.1
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
104
≈ 65th pctl
Chase cost
-3.4r
27 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-0.5r
20 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
48.8%
166 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.37
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
141232+17%6+0%6-44%9+33%6122+0%10-37%19-25%8441+44%9+20%1054-17%632524111111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 166