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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Jurickson Profar

Jurickson Profar

OF·ATL
Compare
Compare
PA
522
H
111
HR
9
AVG
.241
xwOBA
.308
PPG
1.93
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202585373.244.351.431.187.32815.8%12.9%2.9%1492512.95—
2024168670.279
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

522 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
11
.308
xBA
29
.244
.382
.458
.179
.369
15.1%
11.3%
3.8%
24
11
451
2.68
—
2023123522.241.324.367.126.30817.2%9.6%7.6%912371.93—
2022174660.243.332.390.147.32015.6%11.1%4.5%1553872.22—
2021146412.227.331.320.093.30615.8%11.9%3.9%4101991.36—
202062203.276.345.425.149.33713.8%7.4%6.4%771322.13—
2019140521.216.301.407.191.33014.4%9.2%5.2%2093252.32—
2018150595.253.337.457.204.32414.8%9.1%5.7%20103822.55—
20173170.172.294.207.035.29420.0%12.9%7.1%02260.84—
201688308.238.320.337.099.28919.8%9.7%10.1%521201.36—
xSLG
3
.351
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
9
86.5
Median EV
6
88.7
90th % EV
9
101.8
Barrel %
7
4.0
Hard-Hit %
9
31.8
Sweet-Spot %
78
38.2
Bat Speed
Avg
32
69.4
Median
28
70.3
90th %
46
76.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
71
25.1
Whiff %
73
18.2
K %
72
17.2
BB %
56
9.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
109
≈ 82th pctl
Chase cost
-32.5r
307 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-13.7r
284 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
47.1%
2,102 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.20
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
+0%6+13%8+13%8+14%7+0%63+19%16+48%23+18%34-24%34+13%31+13%24+0%9+40%25+15%46-26%61-32%60-27%56+30%20+8%12+38%24-6%49-14%59-26%53-30%50+27%304+19%16+45%29-3%34-12%25+30%20+57%752534321CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000