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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Jurickson Profar

Jurickson Profar

OF·ATL
Compare
Compare
PA
373
H
78
HR
14
AVG
.244
xwOBA
.328
PPG
2.95
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202585373.244.351.431.187.32815.8%12.9%2.9%1492512.95—
2024168670.279
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

373 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
39
.328
xBA
8
.228
.382
.458
.179
.369
15.1%
11.3%
3.8%
24
11
451
2.68
—
2023123522.241.324.367.126.30817.2%9.6%7.6%912371.93—
2022174660.243.332.390.147.32015.6%11.1%4.5%1553872.22—
2021146412.227.331.320.093.30615.8%11.9%3.9%4101991.36—
202062203.276.345.425.149.33713.8%7.4%6.4%771322.13—
2019140521.216.301.407.191.33014.4%9.2%5.2%2093252.32—
2018150595.253.337.457.204.32414.8%9.1%5.7%20103822.55—
20173170.172.294.207.035.29420.0%12.9%7.1%02260.84—
201688308.238.320.337.099.28919.8%9.7%10.1%521201.36—
xSLG
17
.386
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
26
88.7
Median EV
28
91.8
90th % EV
27
104.1
Barrel %
27
7.3
Hard-Hit %
26
40.2
Sweet-Spot %
1
29.7
Bat Speed
Avg
26
68.9
Median
26
70.4
90th %
42
76.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
73
23.9
Whiff %
89
15.0
K %
80
15.8
BB %
87
12.9
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
108
≈ 80th pctl
Chase cost
-24.0r
230 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-11.0r
217 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
44.7%
1,573 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.22
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
43+13%8+0%7+0%6+0%63+0%12+30%20+3%35+11%47+21%29+25%165+36%22+2%49-29%68-31%55-27%41+23%40+0%14+39%31+5%39-23%53-27%55-18%39+26%31+14%7+22%9+26%35+0%32+6%33+17%18425+0%6+14%7+0%952CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000