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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #92 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Justin Verlander
Justin Verlander · #60
V⁻ —VORP -17V⁺ —
Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander

SP·DET
Compare
Compare
BF
19
K %
5.3%
BB %
10.5%
xwOBA
.474
PTS
-11
PPG
-11.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj131370.034004.514.4219.2%7.8%11.4%————1017.73
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

19 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
40
93.2
FB Spin
81
2379
2026
1
1
3.7
0
1
0
0
12.27
7.74
5.3%
10.5%
-5.2%
.474
.333
45.5%
18.8%
-11
-11.00
20253030157.0411004.013.7620.7%7.8%12.9%.320.31571.8%35.5%2207.33
2024171790.356005.484.7218.6%6.8%11.8%.304.30368.2%28.7%1056.18
20233232190.31410003.263.8721.5%6.7%14.8%.295.26878.0%36.2%39112.22
20223535206.7224002.132.5727.7%4.3%23.4%.259.26079.0%38.6%64518.43
2020116.010003.005.6033.3%4.8%28.5%.259.091166.7%61.5%2222.00
20194242263.32310002.773.3335.4%5.0%30.4%.250.22587.4%36.1%83719.93
20183737231.31810002.652.8234.8%4.4%30.4%.237.26783.7%30.7%69818.86
20174140251.71910003.253.6925.8%8.5%17.3%.317.26379.6%34.1%60714.80
20163636237.7169003.143.5828.0%6.3%21.7%.275.25680.1%35.4%60816.89
Extension
8
5.90
Results
xwOBA
0
.474
Barrel %
6
12.5
Hard-Hit %
0
56.3
K %
0
5.3
BB %
15
10.5
Chase %
92
34.9
Whiff %
3
15.4
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
86
≈ 8th pctl
Stuff+
93
if they swing
Command+
82
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
88
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
10.7%
16 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.064
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.022 worse than avg · 42 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.032
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.003 worse than avg · 10 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 150 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
42.5%93.22379+18.1+9.25.897.1%58.8%35.3%35.7%0.0%0.489
SliderSL
27.5%87.42407

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE57°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSLCUCHST
Usage43%28%18%10%3%
MPH93.287.479.283.582.2
RHP Avg95.086.780.286.983.3
+5.4
-1.4
5.90
30.8%
31.8%
27.3%
53.3%
0.0%
0.677
CurveballCU
17.5%79.22671-10.8-4.45.8916.7%35.7%14.3%11.1%12.5%0.430
ChangeupCH
10.0%83.51706+7.2+13.26.000.0%62.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.031
SweeperST
2.5%82.22509-2.0-10.95.800.0%0.0%0.0%50.0%0.0%0.357

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 25″CH · 25″SL · 29″ST · 30″CU · 30″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 31″CH · 53″SL · 44″ST · 58″CU · 64″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.51′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSLCUCHST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSLCUCHST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSLCUCHST

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.