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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 3B peers

Rank #12 of 41

Each bar is one 3B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Kazuma Okamoto
Kazuma Okamoto · #12
V⁻ -8VORP 15V⁺ 76
Kazuma Okamoto

Kazuma Okamoto

3B·TOR
Compare
Compare
PA
267
H
55
HR
13
AVG
.231
xwOBA
.326
PPG
1.72
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj88378.236.318.444.208.33823.6%9.7%13.9%1812012.28—
202665267.231
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
40
.326
xBA
15
.224
xSLG
.312
.424
.193
.326
32.2%
9.4%
22.8%
13
0
112
1.72
—
58
.440
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
88
92.4
Median EV
54
93.0
90th % EV
52
105.4
Barrel %
86
14.4
Hard-Hit %
88
51.0
Sweet-Spot %
43
35.3
Bat Speed
Avg
59
70.8
Median
62
73.0
90th %
63
77.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
69
26.1
Whiff %
6
32.7
K %
3
32.2
BB %
51
9.4
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
105
≈ 69th pctl
Chase cost
-5.8r
53 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.7r
54 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
45.7%
368 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.32
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
112112+0%8+44%9+17%1243+63%8+29%7-19%21-43%21-20%15+17%6+0%6+43%7-15%13-30%20-31%29-35%26+9%11+14%7+50%8+38%16-8%12-5%21+30%1022443232CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 368