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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Ke'Bryan Hayes

Ke'Bryan Hayes

3B·CIN
Compare
Compare
PA
526
H
134
HR
15
AVG
.271
xwOBA
.323
PPG
2.33
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202637128.142.195.225.083.31215.6%6.3%9.3%21310.84—
2025153570.235
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

526 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
28
.323
xBA
64
.263
.290
.306
.071
.283
19.5%
6.3%
13.2%
5
13
203
1.33
—
2024101396.233.286.290.057.28618.9%5.8%13.1%4111351.34—
2023128526.271.310.453.182.32319.8%5.3%14.5%15102982.33—
2022137563.242.314.343.101.30521.7%8.5%13.2%7202251.64—
2021102396.257.317.373.116.29322.0%7.8%14.2%691921.88—
20202495.376.442.682.306.37021.1%9.5%11.6%51773.21—
xSLG
48
.438
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
87
92.1
Median EV
78
94.4
90th % EV
59
105.8
Barrel %
36
7.4
Hard-Hit %
78
48.3
Sweet-Spot %
45
35.6
Bat Speed
Avg
64
71.1
Median
56
71.9
90th %
51
76.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
31
30.7
Whiff %
67
19.2
K %
54
19.8
BB %
8
5.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
94
≈ 26th pctl
Chase cost
-37.1r
355 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-18.5r
339 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
45.6%
2,006 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.77
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
31+17%6+17%631+50%10+60%15+27%22+17%24+19%16+36%114+53%17-30%44-31%59-37%57-21%34+46%26+29%7+52%31+16%44-38%73-31%62-30%53+47%195+38%16+32%37+23%56+11%45+32%22+18%115+40%15+8%13+7%14+10%10+0%6+0%7CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000