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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 3B peers

Rank #43 of 61

Each bar is one 3B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Ke'Bryan Hayes
Ke'Bryan Hayes · #43
V⁻ -19VORP -11V⁺ -7
Ke'Bryan Hayes

Ke'Bryan Hayes

3B·CIN
Compare
Compare
PA
128
H
17
HR
2
AVG
.142
xwOBA
.312
PPG
0.84
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj32136.240.297.354.114.29219.0%7.0%12.0%33581.80—
202637128.142
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

128 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
28
.312
xBA
38
.248
.195
.225
.083
.312
15.6%
6.3%
9.3%
2
1
31
0.84
—
2025153570.235.290.306.071.28319.5%6.3%13.2%5132031.33—
2024101396.233.286.290.057.28618.9%5.8%13.1%4111351.34—
2023128526.271.310.453.182.32319.8%5.3%14.5%15102982.33—
2022137563.242.314.343.101.30521.7%8.5%13.2%7202251.64—
2021102396.257.317.373.116.29322.0%7.8%14.2%691921.88—
20202495.376.442.682.306.37021.1%9.5%11.6%51773.21—
xSLG
31
.392
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
67
90.5
Median EV
31
90.9
90th % EV
27
103.0
Barrel %
50
9.0
Hard-Hit %
34
39.0
Sweet-Spot %
85
40.0
Bat Speed
Avg
33
69.1
Median
26
70.1
90th %
13
73.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
52
28.8
Whiff %
70
18.3
K %
80
15.6
BB %
13
6.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
108
≈ 78th pctl
Chase cost
-2.5r
27 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.8r
41 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
40.4%
198 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.20
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
12111+83%62212-43%7-21%14-38%13-20%101+29%7-33%12-43%21-62%8-25%164+33%6+9%11+9%114521121322CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 198