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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #18 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Kevin Gausman
Kevin Gausman · #18
V⁻ —VORP 60V⁺ —
Kevin Gausman

Kevin Gausman

SP·TOR
Compare
Compare
BF
325
K %
24.3%
BB %
4.3%
xwOBA
.294
PTS
168
PPG
12.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj2121119.086003.893.6723.1%6.7%16.4%————23511.20
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
53
93.9
FB Spin
47
2262
Extension
2026
14
14
80.0
4
4
0
0
3.60
3.15
24.3%
4.3%
20.0%
.294
.288
71.6%
40.7%
168
12.00
20253837223.71214003.503.4924.4%6.4%18.0%.303.25073.1%37.3%47412.47
20243232184.01411003.823.6221.4%7.4%14.0%.339.28470.2%39.3%36611.44
20233333194.01210003.152.8930.9%7.2%23.7%.305.31677.3%42.9%47714.45
20223333186.31210003.432.4128.2%3.9%24.3%.288.35472.8%40.1%41712.64
20213635201.7148003.033.0229.3%6.4%22.9%.292.27776.9%42.7%52214.50
2020131160.733003.562.9732.1%6.5%25.6%.295.29273.0%41.6%14811.38
20193218105.749025.543.8325.3%7.1%18.2%.331.34563.0%40.7%1344.19
20183231185.71011003.974.3119.1%6.4%12.7%.334.29976.8%46.6%2979.28
20173535190.31112004.634.4121.9%8.7%13.2%.344.33575.8%44.0%2697.69
69
6.65
Results
xwOBA
79
.294
Barrel %
52
8.2
Hard-Hit %
66
37.7
K %
66
24.3
BB %
99
4.3
Chase %
90
34.6
Whiff %
65
24.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
98
≈ 42th pctl
Stuff+
100
if they swing
Command+
101
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
91
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
11.6%
50 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.041
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.001 better than avg · 149 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.047
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.017 worse than avg · 17 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 430 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
48.2%94.32277+17.3+11.06.6319.8%58.8%32.4%37.1%23.6%0.308
Split-FingerFS
45.6%84.2

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE39°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFFSSL
Usage48%46%6%
MPH94.384.284.4
RHP Avg95.086.786.7
1634
+3.4
+14.0
6.69
42.5%
27.3%
31.1%
42.7%
26.5%
0.184
SliderSL
6.2%84.42306+4.1-0.76.5622.2%40.9%13.6%7.7%0.0%0.417

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″FS · 23″SL · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 28″FS · 51″SL · 51″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.04′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFFSSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFFSSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFFSSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.