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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. SS peers

Rank #4 of 64

Each bar is one SS, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-200-1000+100Kevin McGonigle
Kevin McGonigle · #4
V⁻ 25VORP 53V⁺ 118
Kevin McGonigle

Kevin McGonigle

3B / SS·DET
Compare
Compare
PA
279
H
69
HR
4
AVG
.289
xwOBA
.373
PPG
2.78
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj99427.260.343.418.158.34014.8%10.9%3.9%1192512.53—
202664279.289
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
80
.373
xBA
76
.277
xSLG
.391
.423
.134
.373
12.9%
13.6%
-0.7%
4
9
178
2.78
—
67
.463
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
29
88.0
Median EV
23
89.9
90th % EV
40
104.2
Barrel %
49
9.0
Hard-Hit %
30
37.8
Sweet-Spot %
67
38.3
Bat Speed
Avg
37
69.5
Median
44
71.4
90th %
52
76.6
Plate Discipline
Chase %
96
19.1
Whiff %
93
12.6
K %
87
12.9
BB %
82
13.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
101
≈ 52th pctl
Chase cost
-6.4r
61 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-3.1r
56 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
40.9%
379 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.50
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
2134232+29%7+40%10+18%17+6%18-9%113+46%13-5%22-21%33-53%19-27%15+22%93+32%19+28%18-29%24-43%21-20%101+38%85+50%12+22%9414241CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 379