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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #94 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Kodai Senga
Kodai Senga · #60
V⁻ —VORP -18V⁺ —
Kodai Senga

Kodai Senga

SP·NYM
Compare
Compare
BF
97
K %
23.7%
BB %
13.4%
xwOBA
.338
PTS
-16
PPG
-3.20
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj121262.044004.034.0523.1%10.6%12.5%————1099.10
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

97 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
40
93.2
FB Spin
72
2345
2026
5
5
20.0
0
4
0
0
9.00
6.15
23.7%
13.4%
10.3%
.338
.382
57.6%
31.7%
-16
-3.20
20252323117.086002.924.0122.5%11.4%11.1%.312.26679.4%47.5%24910.83
20244310.311007.846.0045.0%5.0%40.0%.331.25059.2%22.2%102.50
20233030170.3128003.013.4929.0%11.0%18.0%.308.27579.8%44.0%41413.80
Extension
30
6.30
Results
xwOBA
30
.338
Barrel %
24
10.0
Hard-Hit %
49
40.0
K %
65
23.7
BB %
2
13.4
Chase %
11
26.3
Whiff %
83
26.2
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
103
≈ 63th pctl
Stuff+
116
if they swing
Command+
92
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
116
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
7.7%
29 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.048
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.006 worse than avg · 103 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.001
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.028 better than avg · 36 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 379 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
34.1%96.32348+16.6+6.16.4018.5%54.6%25.9%26.5%35.5%0.314
CutterFC
24.6%89.5

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE49°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFFCFOSTSISLCU
Usage34%25%23%12%5%1%0%
MPH96.389.583.279.988.585.466.9
RHP Avg95.089.8—83.394.386.780.2
2413
+6.7
+0.5
6.35
30.6%
51.3%
35.9%
31.6%
14.3%
0.376
ForkballFO
23.0%83.21137+0.6+11.26.2642.4%27.4%21.9%28.3%23.3%0.215
SweeperST
12.0%79.92532-4.5-10.46.2126.7%55.3%28.9%23.5%—0.462
SinkerSI
5.0%88.52168+5.9+15.56.180.0%31.3%6.3%0.0%—0.166
SliderSL
0.9%85.42499+0.4+1.46.3750.0%33.3%33.3%50.0%0.0%0.684
CurveballCU
0.3%66.92394-13.8-0.26.50—0.0%0.0%0.0%——

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″SI · 21″ST · 22″FC · 23″FO · 24″SL · 25″CU · 28″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 25″SI · 42″ST · 63″FC · 39″FO · 56″SL · 49″CU · 95″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.27′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFFCFOSTSISLCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFFCFOSTSISLCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFFCFOSTSISLCU

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.