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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #64 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Kris Bubic
Kris Bubic · #60
V⁻ —VORP 2V⁺ —
Kris Bubic

Kris Bubic

SP·KCR
Compare
Compare
BF
207
K %
24.6%
BB %
12.6%
xwOBA
.327
PTS
99
PPG
11.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj191478.054003.933.6622.6%8.8%13.9%————1447.60
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
22
91.6
FB Spin
75
2361
Extension
2026
9
9
50.3
3
2
0
0
4.11
3.72
24.6%
12.6%
12.0%
.327
.256
69.7%
45.7%
99
11.00
20252322125.397003.092.9924.3%8.2%16.1%.280.30774.8%46.5%27411.91
202431035.0121102.572.5032.0%4.1%27.9%.226.31574.7%59.7%1083.48
20235421.302003.802.4423.5%2.9%20.6%.309.38374.3%53.1%306.00
20223028134.0413005.444.6918.7%10.7%8.0%.368.34769.0%42.2%852.83
20212920130.067004.435.0720.5%10.6%9.9%.348.28076.8%47.3%1916.59
2020101050.016004.324.6622.1%9.9%12.2%.351.31272.5%46.3%525.20
79
6.73
Results
xwOBA
43
.327
Barrel %
60
7.8
Hard-Hit %
54
39.5
K %
70
24.6
BB %
4
12.6
Chase %
25
28.1
Whiff %
60
23.2
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
104
≈ 65th pctl
Stuff+
103
if they swing
Command+
99
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
105
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
7.8%
31 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.042
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.000 better than avg · 107 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.018
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.011 better than avg · 34 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 399 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
45.7%91.42402+17.3+3.06.7624.0%48.7%25.6%28.8%25.0%0.420
ChangeupCH
18.5%85.8

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE38°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHSTSISL
Usage46%18%15%11%10%
MPH91.485.882.490.884.9
LHP Avg93.284.681.093.084.7
1535
+0.2
+9.8
6.65
40.6%
33.3%
25.4%
33.3%
22.7%
0.214
SweeperST
15.2%82.42623-4.0-13.56.5227.8%50.0%36.5%23.1%41.7%0.234
SinkerSI
10.9%90.82265+8.7+12.86.6910.0%59.5%21.6%26.7%0.0%0.291
SliderSL
9.7%84.92586-1.8-2.56.7353.8%42.4%45.5%36.8%42.9%0.155

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″SI · 18″ST · 23″CH · 22″SL · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 32″SI · 34″ST · 57″CH · 47″SL · 49″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.20′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHSTSISL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHSTSISL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHSTSISL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.