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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #103 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Kyle Bradish
Kyle Bradish · #60
V⁻ —VORP -23V⁺ —
Kyle Bradish

Kyle Bradish

SP·BAL
Compare
Compare
BF
323
K %
22.6%
BB %
12.1%
xwOBA
.324
PTS
88
PPG
6.29
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj191994.054003.793.5824.6%8.7%15.9%————1889.88
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
62
94.4
FB Spin
44
2249
Extension
2026
14
14
73.3
3
7
0
0
4.30
4.70
22.6%
12.1%
10.5%
.324
.327
75.5%
51.4%
88
6.29
20256632.011002.532.4137.3%7.9%29.4%.275.30883.9%33.8%9215.33
20248839.320002.752.4432.5%9.2%23.3%.267.27878.2%55.4%11514.38
20233333180.7139003.243.0225.0%6.5%18.5%.301.28475.0%49.1%41812.67
20222524121.747004.734.3921.8%9.0%12.8%.337.31071.3%45.9%1676.68
31
6.32
Results
xwOBA
49
.324
Barrel %
19
10.5
Hard-Hit %
70
37.1
K %
55
22.6
BB %
7
12.1
Chase %
46
30.3
Whiff %
65
23.6
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
92
≈ 21th pctl
Stuff+
114
if they swing
Command+
88
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
103
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.1%
35 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.048
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.005 worse than avg · 111 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.044
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.015 worse than avg · 34 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 430 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SliderSL
38.4%86.62632-1.1-13.96.3828.0%38.0%26.3%41.2%19.0%0.235
SinkerSI
30.5%94.5

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE53°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SLSICUFF
Usage38%31%17%14%
MPH86.694.583.693.9
RHP Avg86.794.380.295.0
2173
+13.0
+10.4
6.43
10.5%
46.8%
26.6%
19.0%
23.1%
0.262
CurveballCU
16.8%83.62669-13.1-7.06.3633.3%36.7%25.0%34.2%25.0%0.254
4-Seam FastballFF
14.3%93.92363+13.1-2.76.3610.0%51.0%25.5%20.0%40.0%0.466

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″SI · 21″SL · 27″CU · 29″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 27″SI · 28″SL · 46″CU · 52″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.43′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SLSICUFF-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SLSICUFF-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SLSICUFF

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.