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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 1B peers

Rank #24 of 40

Each bar is one 1B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Kyle Manzardo
Kyle Manzardo · #24
V⁻ -33VORP -14V⁺ 16
Kyle Manzardo

Kyle Manzardo

1B·CLE
Compare
Compare
PA
204
H
41
HR
7
AVG
.229
xwOBA
.318
PPG
1.23
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj77331.232.315.430.198.33125.2%9.9%15.3%1411622.11—
202660204.229
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

204 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
32
.318
xBA
20
.228
.320
.397
.168
.318
32.8%
10.3%
22.5%
7
0
74
1.23
—
2025148532.234.315.454.220.32425.4%9.0%16.4%2722571.74—
202461157.233.282.418.185.27626.1%5.7%20.4%50661.08—
xSLG
38
.401
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
33
88.4
Median EV
39
91.8
90th % EV
41
104.3
Barrel %
74
12.4
Hard-Hit %
45
41.6
Sweet-Spot %
77
38.9
Bat Speed
Avg
30
68.8
Median
21
69.4
90th %
32
75.1
Plate Discipline
Chase %
41
31.2
Whiff %
18
28.4
K %
2
32.8
BB %
63
10.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
94
≈ 26th pctl
Chase cost
-7.1r
62 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.3r
38 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
50.0%
336 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.80
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
21+0%632333+31%13+0%11-33%9532+54%13+5%20-24%17-21%24-5%20+38%845+29%17-12%24-26%19-27%1131+33%6+17%12+36%11+50%61315322CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 336