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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #237 of 505

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100Lake Bachar
Lake Bachar · #60
V⁻ —VORP -43V⁺ —
Lake Bachar

Lake Bachar

RP·MIA
Compare
Compare
BF
144
K %
28.5%
BB %
8.3%
xwOBA
.273
PTS
95
PPG
4.52
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj36036.022064.164.1123.5%9.7%13.8%————762.10
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

144 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
70
94.7
FB Spin
100
2713
2026
21
2
36.3
0
0
0
1
2.97
3.79
28.5%
8.3%
20.2%
.273
.190
78.6%
35.2%
95
4.52
202554173.082364.074.2125.3%10.1%15.2%.331.25771.8%35.1%1983.67
20241009.301053.864.8127.5%10.0%17.5%.360.34880.4%36.0%222.20
Extension
10
5.93
Results
xwOBA
92
.273
Barrel %
72
6.8
Hard-Hit %
37
42.0
K %
93
28.5
BB %
45
8.3
Chase %
54
31.2
Whiff %
98
31.2
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
83
≈ 4th pctl
Stuff+
136
if they swing
Command+
75
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
125
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
5.3%
9 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.048
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.006 worse than avg · 49 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.037
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.008 worse than avg · 19 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 170 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
30.1%94.52703+19.0+9.75.9735.3%43.5%26.1%7.7%25.0%0.362
SweeperST
26.8%86.2

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE38°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSTSLFSCU
Usage30%27%26%10%7%
MPH94.586.290.282.885.1
RHP Avg95.083.386.786.780.2
3054
-0.4
-9.1
5.86
28.6%
41.5%
26.8%
37.5%
16.7%
0.289
SliderSL
26.1%90.22685+3.3-1.45.9873.7%27.5%42.5%37.9%63.6%0.111
Split-FingerFS
10.5%82.81725+7.1+16.26.1136.4%25.0%31.3%66.7%0.0%0.413
CurveballCU
6.5%85.12845-8.3-2.65.8533.3%50.0%50.0%60.0%50.0%0.007

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 16″FS · 21″ST · 25″SL · 23″CU · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 27″FS · 54″ST · 47″SL · 37″CU · 47″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.14′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSTSLFSCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSTSLFSCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSTSLFSCU

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.