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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Lars Nootbaar

Lars Nootbaar

OF·STL
Compare
Compare
PA
504
H
111
HR
14
AVG
.260
xwOBA
.359
PPG
2.41
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
2026413.300.462.700.400.49823.1%23.1%0.0%10133.25—
2025135583.234
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

504 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
75
.359
xBA
60
.261
.326
.361
.127
.320
20.4%
11.0%
9.4%
13
4
258
1.91
—
2024106405.244.344.417.173.36219.5%12.8%6.7%1272101.98—
2023119504.260.368.417.157.35919.6%14.3%5.3%14112872.41—
2022111347.228.345.448.220.35420.5%14.7%5.8%1442151.94—
202157124.239.320.422.183.29622.6%10.5%12.1%52621.09—
xSLG
51
.441
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
35
88.8
Median EV
46
92.0
90th % EV
68
106.3
Barrel %
47
8.8
Hard-Hit %
23
37.8
Sweet-Spot %
26
33.8
Bat Speed
Avg
55
70.7
Median
64
72.5
90th %
46
76.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
98
17.2
Whiff %
87
16.2
K %
56
19.6
BB %
93
14.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
110
≈ 84th pctl
Chase cost
-22.8r
229 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-22.9r
421 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
35.3%
2,093 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.18
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
+0%65+10%10+0%12+0%1144+18%17+15%33+6%54+2%41+9%34+0%18+0%11+40%25-10%62-42%92-44%80-24%41+14%22+17%6+17%29-31%55-51%55-25%44-22%27+33%215+7%14+13%15-7%15+7%14+47%17+25%81+0%751+17%622CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000