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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Lars Nootbaar

Lars Nootbaar

OF·STL
Compare
Compare
PA
405
H
85
HR
12
AVG
.244
xwOBA
.362
PPG
1.98
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
2026731.222.323.519.297.42822.6%12.9%9.7%20202.86—
2025135583.234
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

405 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
83
.362
xBA
65
.259
.326
.361
.127
.320
20.4%
11.0%
9.4%
13
4
258
1.91
—
2024106405.244.344.417.173.36219.5%12.8%6.7%1272101.98—
2023119504.260.368.417.157.35919.6%14.3%5.3%14112872.41—
2022111347.228.345.448.220.35420.5%14.7%5.8%1442151.94—
202157124.239.320.422.183.29622.6%10.5%12.1%52621.09—
xSLG
69
.464
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
80
91.4
Median EV
86
94.8
90th % EV
62
105.7
Barrel %
59
9.9
Hard-Hit %
86
49.5
Sweet-Spot %
21
33.3
Bat Speed
Avg
56
70.5
Median
63
72.3
90th %
58
77.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
100
17.0
Whiff %
83
16.0
K %
58
19.5
BB %
98
12.8
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
112
≈ 89th pctl
Chase cost
-17.6r
177 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-17.8r
322 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
37.2%
1,659 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.13
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
5+0%8+14%14+6%16+0%10+14%73+33%9+13%38-13%46+0%52+15%33+0%17+10%10+13%31-13%48-35%94-38%77-27%55+56%18+50%8+24%29-24%50-43%54-41%44-24%33+55%223+0%7+43%14-23%26-36%11+38%1342314333CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000