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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Lars Nootbaar

Lars Nootbaar

OF·STL
Compare
Compare
PA
583
H
119
HR
13
AVG
.234
xwOBA
.320
PPG
1.91
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
2026413.300.462.700.400.49823.1%23.1%0.0%10133.25—
2025135583.234
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
28
.320
xBA
11
.231
xSLG
.326
.361
.127
.320
20.4%
11.0%
9.4%
13
4
258
1.91
—
2024106405.244.344.417.173.36219.5%12.8%6.7%1272101.98—
2023119504.260.368.417.157.35919.6%14.3%5.3%14112872.41—
2022111347.228.345.448.220.35420.5%14.7%5.8%1442151.94—
202157124.239.320.422.183.29622.6%10.5%12.1%52621.09—
23
.401
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
70
91.0
Median EV
83
95.0
90th % EV
57
106.1
Barrel %
54
10.2
Hard-Hit %
85
50.0
Sweet-Spot %
29
34.8
Bat Speed
Avg
65
71.5
Median
64
72.9
90th %
81
78.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
84
21.8
Whiff %
71
19.5
K %
50
20.4
BB %
75
11.0
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
104
≈ 66th pctl
Chase cost
-32.6r
331 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-24.2r
449 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
39.4%
2,383 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.38
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
2+0%6+13%8+8%13+0%9+0%72+8%13+19%26-15%39-2%47+22%32+12%173+27%26-15%41-33%80-37%83-29%62+47%19+25%12+28%25-15%40-45%64-52%54+7%30+53%30+38%8+12%17+6%18+14%14+19%27+28%18+29%7214+0%7252CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000