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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #63 of 234

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Lawrence Butler
Lawrence Butler · #60
V⁻ -17VORP 6V⁺ 49
Lawrence Butler

Lawrence Butler

OF·ATH
Compare
Compare
PA
179
H
26
HR
3
AVG
.163
xwOBA
.302
PPG
0.80
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj69297.238.310.413.174.32125.7%9.4%16.3%1091422.06—
202655179.163
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

179 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
18
.302
xBA
24
.235
.251
.238
.075
.302
26.3%
10.6%
15.7%
3
4
44
0.80
—
2025152632.233.305.403.170.30528.3%9.3%19.0%21232811.85—
2024124451.262.320.490.228.34223.9%7.8%16.1%22172802.26—
202342129.211.242.341.130.29427.1%3.1%24.0%40310.74—
xSLG
9
.337
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
37
89.0
Median EV
71
94.3
90th % EV
93
109.6
Barrel %
20
5.4
Hard-Hit %
62
45.0
Sweet-Spot %
26
33.3
Bat Speed
Avg
62
71.4
Median
69
73.5
90th %
67
78.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
75
25.2
Whiff %
25
26.1
K %
20
26.3
BB %
66
10.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
103
≈ 61th pctl
Chase cost
-4.5r
48 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-3.0r
47 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
44.8%
308 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.42
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
212211+14%7+20%10+29%75+14%754+0%8+13%16-29%21-26%23-47%19+63%85+50%6-11%19-16%19-29%14-21%14+33%64+38%8+13%8+10%10+33%644321CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 308